COVID-19 is not limited to King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties. They’re just the hardest hit.
As the disease spreads beyond the hotspots, we will likely see higher numbers in outlying counties.
Source: Seattle Times March 12, 2020
The disease is ramping up in Europe
Source: New York Times March 12, 2020
The disease has a growth period, hits a peak, then recedes
The disease already seems to be receding in the earliest countries to get hit. China, South Korea, and Iran are seeing fewer new cases than a few weeks ago. It was first identified in China in December 2019. They were slow to react there, so it got very bad. if we look at countries with better response, we see a very flat curve. Japan is the best example. The disease ramped up very fast in countries other than China who were hard hit, such as Italy and Iran, but we are seeing fewer cases now. Other countries look like they are still in the growth period. Spain, France, and Germany are, as are Scandinavian countries. The U.S. is in that category as well.
The question now is, how long will it last? If it gets as bad as China, it could last for three months. If the U.S. takes aggressive measures, it might be over more quickly. Iran and Italy look like they will be back to low levels after a month. South Korea is already down to a little over 10 cases per day. the U.S. just moved into 100 cases a day territory. It might still be increasing here, but we don’t know. Testing in the U.S. has been very spotty, so these numbers might be much higher than what is being reported.
Source: New York Times March 12, 2020
