Are we on the point of a major turning point in US history? Since 1776, there have been three major turning points or revolutions in American society, including the American Revolution, the Civil War, and the Great Depression/World War II. There have been other smaller ones, though probably not as widespread or as deep as those. Each of these turning points have been spaced roughly eighty years apart, or the average lifetime of an American citizen.
It has been eighty years since the last one and it feels like we are in a crisis that could be the trigger for another major social upheaval.
Generational Theory
Even if you have never heard of Generational theory, you have heard of Baby Boomers and Millenials. You probably have also heard of Generation X and the Greatest Generation, maybe even the Silent Generation. Invented by William Strauss and Neil Howe, Generation Theory takes these generations and extrapolates them out throughout US history, creating a set of cycles that have repeated since the founding of the US and even before. Like Mark Twain is reputed to have said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.“
The basic thrust of the theory is that history goes through cycles every eighty years, with four eras, or turnings, in each cycle. Each turning has a generation associated with it. After every cycle, a crisis occurs in American history, followed by a recovery, a reawakening, an unraveling, and another crisis.
The Four Turnings
During a Crisis, institutional life is destroyed, usually by war or revolution. That sure feels like the Trump era. Many of his supporters like him precisely for this fact. His Drain the Swamp message, overturning the deep state, etc. are targeting the institutions that were built after World War II, the last crisis. Steve Bannon, one of Trump’s early advisors used Generation Theory to support these ideas.
Following the Crisis comes the High. Institutions are rebuilt while society has strong social cohesion. During the Great Depression and after World War II, the US created government agencies and international organizations designed to prevent a crisis like that of the mid-20th century.
This is not to say that there is no opposition to how society rebuilds during the recovery. That opposition manifests itself in the next era, the Awakening. This is a spiritual era, reacting to the institutionalism and materialism of the previous generation. This generation rebels against the discipline of the institutions created in response to the previous crisis. Most recently, we had the Civil Rights and hippies of the 60s, and feminism in the 70s.
Next, as institutions weaken and individualism flourishes, social bonds weaken, leading to an Unraveling. This generation wants to enjoy itself, ignoring their responsibility to others and to society. This is epitomized most recently by the Culture Wars’ reaction to the Awakening of the 60s and 70s and the slacker attitude of Generation X in the 80s and 90s. This Unraveling then leads to the next crisis.
The Eras of American History
The turnings correspond to eras in American history and generations associated with them:
| Era | Crisis | High/Recovery | Reawakening | Unraveling |
| 1776- 1860 | Republican Generation, American Revolution | Compromise Generation, Era of Good Feelings | Transcendental Generation, Transcendental Awakening | Gilded Generation, Mexican– American War, Sectionalism |
| 1860- 1940 | Gilded Generation, Civil War | Progressive Generation, Reconstruction/Gilded Age | Missionary Generation, Missionary Awakening/ Progressive Era | Lost Generation, World War I, Prohibition |
| 1940- 2020 | GI Generation, Great Depression, World War II | Silent Generation, Post-war American High | Baby Boomers, Consciousness Revolution | Generation X, Neoliberalism/ Culture Wars |
| 2020- ? | Millenial Generation, Great Recession/ COVID | Generation Z |
Each generation is associated with a certain “personality“. Prophets are born in Highs and influence reawakenings (Baby Boomers). Nomads are born in reawakenings and come of age during an unraveling (Generation X). Heros are born in an unraveling and come of age during a crisis (G.I. Generation, Millenials). Artists are born during crisis and come of age during a High (Progressive Generation, Silent Generation, Generation Z).
Like most historical theories, it looks clearest with history closest to the present and gets fuzzier the farther back you go. Many historians have critiqued the theory. NY Review of Books. QZ.com
Material Dialectic
One can fit Strauss and Howe’s theory neatly into the Hegelian dialectic. Hegel’s idea was intended as a philosophical premise. An idea (Thesis) generates an opposing idea (Antithesis). The contradiction of these two ideas generates a higher truth (Synthesis). dictionary.com
Marx brought Hegel’s ideas out of the realm of thought and into the material realm of economics and historical determinism in the theory of Dialectical Materialism. That is, the Thesis of one historical and economic trend generates an opposing trend. The conflict between these trends creates a revolution culminating in a new economic order. Marx used the conflict of labor and capital to predict a crisis in capitalism resulting in communist societies.
Putting aside Marx’s views on historical prediction, if we look at Generational Theory through the lens of Dialectical Materialism, we can see the Thesis and Antithesis of each generation leading to a new era. The conflict between one generation (Thesis) and the one following (Antithesis) leads to a new era (Synthesis). That synthesis generates a new conflict with the following generation, repeating the cycle from crisis to crisis.
The Cycles of American History
It has been about eighty years since the end of the Great Depression and the beginning of World War II. Eighty years before that was the beginning of the Civil War. About eighty years before that was the American Revolution (and the French Revolution, not coincidentally). One can look farther back to the Glorious Revolution of England when America was just British colonies. That revolution created the foundation for the current British constitutional monarchy. Eighty years before that, the first permanent European settlers came to America with their African slaves.
We cannot discount the eighty year cycles of history. It makes sense given that one person’s life and therefore influence on society lasts about eighty years.
What’s Next?
Being the eternal optimist (not really, but it sounds good), I like to think we are in for better times. I thought the Great Recession was the crisis that would lead to the next revolution, but I think it was ten years too early. Now I think the COVID pandemic following the Great Recession is the crisis.
For decades, this country has been reeling from the effects of the Culture Wars, the War on Terror, the Great Recession, and now the COVID pandemic. It feels like an Unraveling led to the Crisis we are in now. Make no mistake, this is a crisis.
I like to look forward to predict what life will be like in the next few years. I don’t think I’m that different from most. We want to know what’s going to happen. We don’t like to be taken by surprise.
In the late 90s, I predicted a recession and war would happen in the 2000s. We got both. First the dot-com bust, then the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. I didn’t predict when or how they would happen, just that they would. I did not predict the Great Recession or COVID-19.
The Next Revolution
Can we predict the future? Can Generation Theory help? If so, it predicts that we are in for another revolution in American society.
Following World War II, the Civil War, and the Revolutionary War, the US rebuilt itself. Many of the institutions that govern life in the US and the world now were created after these revolutions. From the form of government enshrined in the US Constitution to the 13th, 14th, and 15th amendments after the Civil War, and the government agencies and international organizations created during the Great Depression and after World War II, American has rebuilt itself time and again after crises.
Ideas from the Left vs Ideas from the Right
Given our current crisis, what institutions will we create to prevent another crisis like the one we are in now? There are a number of ideas floating around that might take root. Activists on the left are calling for criminal justice reform to prevent another crisis in race relations. Others are calling for an expanded Supreme Court. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have proposed new laws and agencies to regulate Wall Street and prevent another Great Recession. There are those that want to expand the CDC’s power to prevent another pandemic. Liberal representatives in Congress have proposed a Green New Deal to combat global climate change.
On the other hand, the culture warriors on the right have installed conservative judges that will have an impact on American society for another generation. Will they continue to restrict reproductive rights, voting rights, and civil rights? Will they prevent the next Congress from passing laws regulating business, preserving constitutional rights, or preventing climate change? Many people oppose the solutions put forward to prevent or react to climate change. Some even deny its existence.
The future is obscure. We cannot predict, but we can work toward the future we want. If we are going to change the course of history, now is the time to do it. We have all heard the old saying, the Chinese word for crisis is formed by “danger” and “opportunity”. In fact, it’s formed by the characters for “danger” and “change”, but that’s a different post.
We have the opportunity now to decide what change we want to see. American society is starkly divided. How it comes together to create new institutions and a more stable society is likely to be a compromise between the two sides. The Thesis and Antithesis must come together to create a new Synthesis. In order to create a more just, verdant, and peaceful world, we must put forward our ideas and fight for the institutions that we want to build that world.
